Gabrielle
Registered
Global warming is not happening
Dr. Kevin Trenberth ("Global Warming: It?s Happening," naturalSCIENCE, December 4, 1997) has severely criticized a feature article in the (Toronto) Globe and Mail newspaper (November 22, 1997). He is wrong on many counts.
Trenberth informs us that "climate is changing." No problem there. Mean temperatures rose steeply in the decades before 1940 and dropped from 1940 to about 1975. Most climatologists agree that these changes were of natural origin--although Trenberth tries to present them as of human origin. But then he claims that "global mean temperature is rising." Not so. The weather satellite data, the only truly global data set we have, actually show a global cooling trend during the past 19 years.
Trenberth then cites his critique of these satellite results. That?s all good and proper, and part of the ongoing scientific debate about global w
arming. But he should have informed the reader of the able response by John Christy and Roy Spencer, who are responsible for the analysis of these data. And he should have also mentioned that balloon-borne weather sondes provide an independent set of data that confirm the satellite results of ongoing global cooling.
In fact, it is the surface data that are suspect, and especially the data that purport to measure the temperature of the sea surface. The oceans cover 70 percent of the Earth, but only a small fraction is actually observed. At least four different techniques are somehow combined to give a "global" value, with grave doubts about the intercalibration. As the mix of data sources changes over time, it is likely to introduce a temperature trend that is largely an artifact.
Trenberth is out of his specialty when he describes some of the imagined consequences of a global warming, such as floods and droughts. Along with Vice President Al Gore, he cites the 1997 North Dakota flood as an examp
le. Trenberth should find himself a better expert, like Harry Lins of the US Geological Survey, who has actually analyzed flood data and reports no increasing trend (Am. Geophys. Union Meeting, December 1997).
Trenberth bemoans the "politicization of science"--and so do we. He refers the reader to the George Brown article in the March 1997 issue of Environment, which is based on a blatantly partisan staff report. The reader is not told about the replies to Brown in the May issue that sets the record straight.
Finally, Trenberth drags out the hoary consensus of "over 2000 IPCC scientists." I have analyzed this fabricated claim in some detail (see Wall Street Journal, July 25, 1997). There are, at best, only about 100 climate scientists in this IPCC listing of economists, political scientists, government functionaries, and public relations specialists. Not that numbers matter, but among the 100 bona-fide experts there are many who disagree with the "consensus"--as determined by several independent
polls. (See also the May 16, 1997 issue of Science.) And there are even some who have publicly expressed their disagreement by signing the "Leipzig Declaration"--which now numbers over 100 signers.
S. Fred Singer
President, The Science & Environmental Policy Project
http://www.sepp.org/
Dr. Kevin Trenberth ("Global Warming: It?s Happening," naturalSCIENCE, December 4, 1997) has severely criticized a feature article in the (Toronto) Globe and Mail newspaper (November 22, 1997). He is wrong on many counts.
Trenberth informs us that "climate is changing." No problem there. Mean temperatures rose steeply in the decades before 1940 and dropped from 1940 to about 1975. Most climatologists agree that these changes were of natural origin--although Trenberth tries to present them as of human origin. But then he claims that "global mean temperature is rising." Not so. The weather satellite data, the only truly global data set we have, actually show a global cooling trend during the past 19 years.
Trenberth then cites his critique of these satellite results. That?s all good and proper, and part of the ongoing scientific debate about global w
arming. But he should have informed the reader of the able response by John Christy and Roy Spencer, who are responsible for the analysis of these data. And he should have also mentioned that balloon-borne weather sondes provide an independent set of data that confirm the satellite results of ongoing global cooling.
In fact, it is the surface data that are suspect, and especially the data that purport to measure the temperature of the sea surface. The oceans cover 70 percent of the Earth, but only a small fraction is actually observed. At least four different techniques are somehow combined to give a "global" value, with grave doubts about the intercalibration. As the mix of data sources changes over time, it is likely to introduce a temperature trend that is largely an artifact.
Trenberth is out of his specialty when he describes some of the imagined consequences of a global warming, such as floods and droughts. Along with Vice President Al Gore, he cites the 1997 North Dakota flood as an examp
le. Trenberth should find himself a better expert, like Harry Lins of the US Geological Survey, who has actually analyzed flood data and reports no increasing trend (Am. Geophys. Union Meeting, December 1997).
Trenberth bemoans the "politicization of science"--and so do we. He refers the reader to the George Brown article in the March 1997 issue of Environment, which is based on a blatantly partisan staff report. The reader is not told about the replies to Brown in the May issue that sets the record straight.
Finally, Trenberth drags out the hoary consensus of "over 2000 IPCC scientists." I have analyzed this fabricated claim in some detail (see Wall Street Journal, July 25, 1997). There are, at best, only about 100 climate scientists in this IPCC listing of economists, political scientists, government functionaries, and public relations specialists. Not that numbers matter, but among the 100 bona-fide experts there are many who disagree with the "consensus"--as determined by several independent
polls. (See also the May 16, 1997 issue of Science.) And there are even some who have publicly expressed their disagreement by signing the "Leipzig Declaration"--which now numbers over 100 signers.
S. Fred Singer
President, The Science & Environmental Policy Project
http://www.sepp.org/