NOW u morons see problem w. deficits, debt, spending, low int. rates--PENSIONS destroyed, suckers

Apollonian

Guest Columnist
Bankrupt Illinois Cities Forced to Cut Services to Fund Pensions

Link: https://moneymaven.io/mishtalk/econ...ices-to-fund-pensions-0Ax39mggp0KaEu0WgOAVSQ/

Multiple cities in Illinois are forced to cut police, fire departments and other city services to fund pension plans.

Third Domino

Illinois does not allow cities to file for bankruptcy but that is the best word to describe many of them. East St. Louis is the latest.

What Follows is a Guest Post from Wirepoints

My comments at the end.

Wirepoint reports Third domino falls: Illinois Comptroller set to confiscate East St. Louis revenues to pay for city’s firefighter pensions.

On Tuesday, the East St. Louis’ firefighter pension fund demanded that Illinois Comptroller Susana Mendoza intercept more than $2.2 million of East St. Louis city revenues so they could be diverted to the pension fund.

The fund trustees said the city shorted firefighter pensions by $880,000 in 2017 and another $1.3 million in 2018. Under a 2011 pension law, the state comptroller gained the powers to intercept city revenues on behalf of police and fire pension funds shorted by their municipalities.

Harvey was the first municipality to run afoul of the intercept law. North Chicago, a Chicago suburb of 30,000, was the second. Now it’s East St. Louis’ turn.

Back when Harvey was first intercepted last year, Wirepoints reported that comptroller confiscations could wreak havoc on hundreds of Illinois communities, potentially creating a domino effect. Hundreds of Illinois’ 650 pension funds have not received their statutorily required contributions from their respective cities in recent years, meaning the intercept law could go into wide usage under a broader crisis scenario. In the most recent analysis of Illinois Department of Revenue data, nearly half of the 650 funds were not properly funded in 2017 (see details below).

That domino effect could be exacerbated given that municipalities have virtually no control over their own pension funds. State law sets all the rules and pensions are protected by the Illinois Constitution, meaning that in a market downturn, the pension funds may have little choice but to demand more intercepts.

The intercept law was first utilized in 2018, when Harvey, Illinois, revenues were garnished to pay the city’s police and firefighter pension funds.

That intercept of nearly $3.3 million led to the layoff of 40 public safety workers so the city could avoid insolvency. The city found it couldn’t simultaneously pay for both current workers and pensioners. The city and the pension plans eventually reached a deal that relieved some of the pressure on the city.

East St. Louis’ fire and police pensions are some of the worst funded in the state, with funded ratios of just 31% and 9%, respectively. In total, the city has a shortfall of more than $104 million in its public safety pension plans, according to Illinois’ Department of Insurance. That’s more than $9,700 per household in a community where 43 percent of people live below the poverty line.

And with just $6.1 million in assets and annual payouts to beneficiaries totaling $3.7 million, the city’s fire fund has the equivalent of only two years of payouts in its accounts today.

Illinois cities – from Kankakee to Danville to Alton – need pension fixes before costs bankrupt them. And while state politicians have effectively quashed any chance for reforms now, that shouldn’t stop city officials from demanding real changes.

Municipal leaders across Illinois need to demand the following if they want their cities to survive Illinois’ collective crisis:

1.An amendment to the constitution’s pension protection clause so pensions can be reformed and workers’ retirement security saved;

2.The ability to convert pensions to defined contribution plans for workers going forward;

3.A freeze on retirees’ cost-of-living adjustments (while protecting small pensioners) until pension plans return to health;

4.Public sector collective bargaining reforms so officials can hold the line on new labor contracts, and;

5.And the possibility of a fresh start through the ability to invoke municipal bankruptcy.

The troubles brewing in Illinois are all happening during one of the longest economic expansions ever. When the economy and the stock markets inevitably correct, things will only get worse.

Without the above reforms, East St. Louis, North Chicago and Harvey might only be the first in a long list of collapsing cities.

Mish Comments

What Illinois needs most is point 5, bankruptcy reform.

Points 1-4 can only happen if 5 is addressed. There will be no bargaining until unions face the threat of court bankruptcy decisions.

Pet Peeve

Under current law, states have the right to allow bankruptcies or not, but once they do, bankruptcies proceed through Federal, not state, bankruptcy courts.

One of my major pet peeves with the Trump administration is that it failed to reform bankruptcy laws at the national level.

Trump had two years to address this issue and did nothing. Why Rand Paul failed to introduce legislation is also a mystery.

Corrupt Illinois, in deference to public unions, refuses to act.

The citizens of East St. Louis, North Chicago, Harvey, Danville, Rockford etc are at the mercy of state funding laws even to the point of the state confiscating city funds needed to provide adequate police and fire protection for cities.

Two Years and Counting

Eventually, an Illinois city will be forced to fire its entire police or firefighter force to fund pensions.

We don't have long to wait.

East St. Louis has only two year's cash left in which to pay firefighters.

I expect a case will then make it to the Supreme Court and hopefully we will have a national resolution.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
 
There are plenty of problems faced by pensions and long-term saving

November 25, 2019 by IWB
by Shaun Richards

Link: https://www.investmentwatchblog.com...blems-faced-by-pensions-and-long-term-saving/

[see pod-cast vid at site link, above]

Even a cursory glance at the news will tell you that there is a lot of rumbling discontent in the pensions arena. There has been the issue over NHS doctors pensions, the WASPI women and today a strike over pensions by those who work at universities. I rarely directly dealt with them as they were a colleagues responsibility but back in the day the Universities Superannuation Scheme had a very good name. In many ways these are symptoms of credit crunch themes so let us take a look at them. But our musical theme is provided by Queen and David Bowie.

Low and negative interest-rates

Pressure was applied by the initial cuts to official interest-rates but this was ramped up when the bond purchases of QE were added to it. This was a deliberate attempt to reduce bond yields which in many ways are the lifeblood of many types of pension.As ever we were promised it would be temporary as this from Bank of England Deputy Governor Sir Charles Bean from September 2010 shows.

“It’s very much swings and roundabouts. At the current juncture, savers might be suffering as a result of bank rate being at low levels, but there will be times in the future — as there have been times in the past — when they will be doing very well.”

I am afraid that he took us for Charlies back then as over nine years later we are still waiting and as I shall explain in a moment matters deteriorated. As to Sir Charles he is “doing very well” as not only did he retire with a large Bank of England pension that somehow managed to be fixed to the “flawed” RPI measure of inflation but he is now at the Office for Budget Responsibility.

If we moved forwards to August 2012 our warning klaxon was triggered as we saw an official denial.

For those approaching retirement in ‘defined contribution’ schemes, lower gilt yields as a result of QE have reduced annuity rates. But it is crucial to allow for the fact the QE has raised the value of pension fund assets too. Once allowance is made for that, QE is estimated to have had a broadly neutral impact on the value of the annuity income that can be purchased from a typical personal pension pot invested in a mixture of bonds and equities.

There always were issues with that an even it could not avoid pointing out this.

But schemes that were already in substantial deficit before the financial crisis are likely to have seen those deficits increased.

Also the deflector screens were in operation which is a bit odd don;t you think when there is apparently no problem.

The paper notes that the main factor behind increased pension deficits and falls in annuity incomes has not been the Bank’s asset purchases, but rather the fall in equity prices relative to government bond prices.

If we look at their last point this remains true and is much of the problem. The UK FTSE 100 has gained over 1600 points since August 2012 according to my monthly chart but the 50-year Gilt yield has plunged from 3.09% to 1.18%. So what we were told was temporary has become permanent. Regular readers will be aware of the bond market surge we have seen and in fact it was even stronger a couple of months ago when the UK 50 year yield went below 1% for a time.

The Problem

Let me now address the consequence of this which twofold. If you have a pension fund to invest in and draw from ( DC or Direct Contribution) then your annuity rate and hence pension will be low. Added to the bit that allows for the risk of you dying ( sorry for the grim bit) is a mere 1% or so. So whilst you can take 25% as a lump sum and it is tax-free the other 75% does not pay much. A single life annuity at 65 pays just over 5% so many will doubt if they will even get the sum invested back and this is with no inflation protection.

Next comes another development which has hammered final salary or Defined Benefit schemes.The trends were against them as we have looked at above but it got worse as some investors noted that you got get more yield from RPI linked Gilts than conventional ones and drove the prices even higher. This meant that the costs of a DB scheme got higher/worse and meant they were likely to continue to thin out in number.

You do not have to take my word for it as here is the Bank of England.Remember it saying in 2012 that things were neutral? Well by 2016 apparently not.

It has emerged that employees, led by the Bank’s governor, Mark Carney, received the equivalent of a 50%-plus salary contribution into their pensions last year, underwritten by the taxpayer. ( The Guardian )

Pensions Law

Back in the days before the credit crunch I was involved in some pensions work and took the advanced qualification called AF3. I stopped because they kept changing the rules and it would have been a case of perpetual study! But even more seriously the rule changes have tripped over each other and ended in the mess that is doctors pensions. Most would want them to be covered but as the limits were cut no-one seemed to think that it could cost consultants to work for the NHS. As fast as they earned money this raised their pension value and they were/are taxed on it.

NHS England has set out plans to pay off pension tax bills for doctors who breach the annual allowance limit on pension growth in 2019/20. ( GP Online)

So there is an apparent fix but what about others who have been tripped up by changes which have turned out to be in some senses retrospective? I suspect professors are part of the USS dispute although what we have looked at already is an issue.

Deficits

This is a problem because of the way that they are measured.

The pensions industry uses something called a ’discount rate’ to calculate the present value of the scheme’s liabilities………….. The liabilities must be measured using the current yield on high quality corporate bonds – usually AA rated bonds – regardless of how the how the trustees of the pension
scheme invest their assets

What do you think has happened here in the credit crunch era?

Comment

The arrow flying into the heart of pension saving has been the persistence of low interest-rates and bond yields.They have been not only “temporarily” low for a decade but have gone even lower. Buying an index-linked Gilt now guarantees you a negative real yield if you make a long-term investment which frankly defeats its/their whole purpose.

If we switch to the WASPI issue there is another mess. Back in the early to mid 1990s it was decided that men’s and women’s state pension ages would be equalised rather than women getting theirs at 60 as opposed to 65. In many ways it seemed fair although of course some would be adversely affected.This was sped up in 2011 but has been a policy in motion under governments including all 3 main parties in the UK. Was this unfair? If so it is hard to see how changes could be made and also what about higher retirement ages generally? Even worse plans to change this seem to mostly benefit the better off. So I have tried to avoid the politics but yet again we end up with short-term manoeuvring around a long-term issue.
 
Failing U.S. Pension System May Need Federal Bailout to Survive

December 11, 2019 by IWB
From Birch Gold Group

Link: https://www.investmentwatchblog.com/failing-u-s-pension-system-may-need-federal-bailout-to-survive/

The pension system in the United States isn’t healthy by any stretch of the imagination. It has been underfunded for quite some time.

The newest pension system “report card” was released in June this year. It reveals the latest official data (as of 2017), and shows that things aren’t much better since the previous version we reported on back in January:

state pension

When comparing the funding ratios of the top three state pension programs to the bottom three, things get even more disturbing.

According to the latest report, the top three programs (South Dakota, Tennessee, and Wisconsin) remain virtually unchanged since 2013, hovering around 100%.

But the bottom three (Illinois, Kentucky, and New Jersey) are even more underfunded, dropping from ~50% funding in 2013 down to only ~38% in 2017.

A disturbing fact about the three worst funded state pensions is that they have been receiving more money, yet are more underfunded. According to the report, these states “had an average employer contribution rate of more than 31 percent of payroll in 2017—a 22 percentage point increase since 2007.”

Even more disturbing, the majority of all 50 states resemble the worst-funded:

For example, only eight states were at least 90 percent funded in 2017, while 20 states were less than two-thirds funded.

Overall, the entire system is suffering from a widening “trillion dollar gap between their liabilities and their assets,” according to ZeroHedge.

But if that weren’t bad enough, talk of a taxpayer-funded federal bailout is beginning to surface as a potential way out of this mess.

The Potential Solution May Be a Taxpayer-Funded Nightmare

Marc Levine, the former chairman of the Illinois Board of Investment, is famous for deploying the strategy of firing hedge funds and managers to close the funding gap.

Illinois is ironically one of the bottom three state-funded pensions, but nonetheless, Levine offered the radical idea of a federal bailout:

“I think the federal government is going to have to do something about this […] I think ultimately there will be some kind of grand bargain where they freeze benefits in exchange for federal money in some kind of grand bargain.[…] ‘Like a bailout?’ asked MarketBrief’s Caroline Woods. ‘Exactly,’ Levine replied.”

The idea of another taxpayer-funded pension bailout isn’t likely to sit well with Americans who are already having a challenging time saving for retirement in the first place.

The U.S. government already tried that after the 2008 recession, and the jury is still out as to whether or not it created a “permanent bailout state.”

According to a Rolling Stone piece by Matt Taibbi, with that bailout lawmakers may have fueled a perpetual nightmare:

What we actually ended up doing was the exact opposite: committing American taxpayers to permanent, blind support of an ungovernable, unregulatable, hyperconcentrated new financial system that exacerbates the greed and inequality that caused the crash, and forces Wall Street banks like Goldman Sachs and Citigroup to increase risk rather than reduce it.

So “buyer beware” if these shenanigans are proposed as a way to save an already crumbling pension system.
 
Skyrocketing Costs Will Pop All the Bubbles

December 19, 2019 by IWB

Link: https://www.investmentwatchblog.com/skyrocketing-costs-will-pop-all-the-bubbles/

by Charles Hugh-Smith

The reckoning is coming, and everyone who counted on “eternal growth of borrowing” to stave off the reckoning is in for a big surprise.

We’ve used a simple trick to keep the status quo from imploding for the past 11 years: borrow whatever it takes to keep paying the skyrocketing costs for housing, healthcare, college, childcare, government, permanent wars and so on.

The trick has worked because central banks pushed interest rates to zero,lowering the costs of borrowing more as costs continued spiraling higher.

But that trick has been used up. The next step–negative interest rates–has failed to spark the “growth” required to pay for insanely overpriced housing, healthcare, college, childcare, government, etc.

We’ve reached the end of the line on lowering interest rates as a way of borrowing more to keep our heads above water. We’ve reached the point where households and enterprises can’t even afford the principle payments, i.e. no interest at all.

How are banks supposed to make money at zero interest rates? By charging outrageous overdraft fees and offering marginally qualified borrowers sky-high credit cards, and getting in on the federally guaranteed mortgage/student loan racket, that’s how.

The point here is the discipline of rising costs has been destroyed by easy money. Take higher education as an example. If there was no federally backed student loan “industry,” universities would have been forced to innovate 20 years ago to lower costs and improve the market value of their “product.”

Instead, they left their bloated cost structure untouched as it spiraled ever higher, and simply passed the higher costs onto students, who have had to borrow over $1.5 trillion to feed the bloated higher education cartel.

Borrowing more money to avoid dealing with soaring costs doesn’t solve the problem, it adds another problem. With the discipline of living within one’s means destroyed, there’s no pressure to innovate or make necessary sacrifices. The status quo becomes complacently bloated, lazy, sclerotic, unwilling to change anything fundamental and incapable of making the tiniest sacrifices. Why sacrifice when we can always pass higher costs to somebody who can always borrow more?

Even at near-zero rates, borrowing more runs into a brick wall. Even at zero interest, the principle and other costs of buying and maintaining vehicles, homes, etc. with borrowed money eventually exceeds income, and the borrowers default en masse.

Nobody cares where the taxpayers, renters, buyers or customers get the money; for 26 glorious years, they’ve somehow come up with the cash to pay the rent that tripled, the healthcare insurance that tripled, the property taxes that tripled, the college tuition that tripled, and so on.

Meanwhile, back in reality, wages have not tripled, they’ve barely budged for the bottom 90%, and so the widening gap between income–the ability to pay in cash– and borrowing more to pay on credit has widened to the breaking point.

The most experienced operators are closing shop. As this article notes, the most experienced restaurateurs in Seattle are closing their doors: Seattle’s Wage Mandate Kills Restaurants: “I often hear people in Seattle lament that it’s becoming ‘more corporate.’ The truth is that the city has made it nearly impossible for many small businesses to survive.” (WSJ.com)

Here’s the dynamic: all the vested interests take a ruler and a pencil and they extend the line of higher costs and revenues into the future: so what if the rent on this cramped cafe went from $1,000 a month to $3,000 a month? We can jack it up to $4,000 and then $5,000 a month because the tenants have always managed to pay the higher costs.

Local governments act on the same delusional extension of “growth forever.”Small businesses can always pay higher taxes and fees because they’ve always managed to pay them no matter how much we jack them up.

Small businesses and property owners are viewed as tax donkeys: load them with higher taxes and fees, and they trudge onward without a complaint. The smart money is bailing as fast as they can, and the dumb money remains delusional: customers will happily pay $40 for a plate of chicken because they’ve always managed to pay the higher costs.

You see the disconnect between stagnant wages and costs that have tripled:you can only fill the widening gap with borrowed money for so long, and then even as zero interest the wage earner can no longer afford to borrow more.

At that point, defaulting on existing debt is either impossible to avoid or the wisest choice. The owners of a cafe who can no longer make the insane rent can’t default, so they just walk away. Having been stripped to the bone by sky-high costs, there’s nothing left for creditors. As the old saying has it, “you can’t get blood from a turnip.”

The reckoning is coming, and everyone who counted on “eternal growth of borrowing” to stave off the reckoning is in for a big surprise: revenues will plummet, incomes will plummet, lending will plummet, college enrollments will plummet, and tax receipts will plummet. Defaults will skyrocket, triggering a collapse in debt markets, housing markets and stock markets, all of which are totally dependent on the delusion that we can deal with soaring costs by borrowing more, forever and ever.

The smartest most experienced rats flee the ship at the first sign that “this sucker is going down.” The complacent rats who believe that extending the line of “permanent growth” will track reality will lose the opportunity to exit before the panic, and they will pay the price for their delusional complacency.
 
How screwed up the pension system is

By RUSSIAN TROLL on 01/28/2020

Link: https://governmentslaves.news/2020/01/28/how-screwed-up-the-pension-system-is/

Late last year, the investment management giant Morningstar published a report concluding that most people can either save money for retirement, or save money for their kids’ education… but NOT both.

They make the economic realities very clear: parents have to choose between their own future, or their children’s future.

And one of the report’s lead authors went on to say that the RIGHT choice– the ONLY choice– is to choose your retirement over your kids:

“If you sacrifice your retirement savings to send your child to college, you’re making a huge mistake.”

That’s a pretty sad statement. But it’s unfortunately true for most people.

University education is already -very- expensive, and tuition fees are rising much faster than wages and income.

According to Federal Reserve data, university tuition has risen an average of 4.5% per year since 2000 (meaning that university is twice as expensive as it was at the turn of the century).

This ‘inflation rate’ in tuition is more than TWICE as much as the growth in median household income (which has averaged just 2.2% annual growth since 2000).

This means that, for the past two decades, university education has become more and more out of reach. And it’s no surprise that student debt levels are at a record high as a result.

But on the other side of the coin, retirement is also incredibly expensive. And uncertain.

People are living longer than ever before… and they want to ensure that they have enough money to last.

Emigrate While You Still Can!

You used to be able to save money for your retirement in easy, low-risk investments like government savings bonds that paid a healthy rate of return.

In 1986, for example, the inflation rate in the United States was just 1.86%. But a 10-year government bond paid as much as 9%.

This was a wonderful investment for retirees who could safely earn a strong return without having to take any significant risk. And this was the case throughout the 1980s and 1990s.

But for most of the last 10-12 years, interest rates have hovered near their lowest levels in 5,000 years of human history.

US government statistics show that the overall rate of inflation in 2019 was 2.3%. Yet a 10-year government bond now only pays 1.7%.

So if you’re a retiree today and you put money into that same ‘safe’ government bond investment, you’re guaranteed to lose money when adjusted for inflation.

This is why the CEO of Blackrock (the world’s largest money management firm), has said that people today have to set aside THREE TIMES AS MUCH money to save for retirement as their parents and grandparents did. It’s precisely because of these low interest rates.

Social Security is no comfort, either. We’ve discussed this frequently in previous articles: Social Security is massively and terminally underfunded.

And this isn’t some wild conspiracy theory.

The Social Security’s Board of Trustees publishes a report on the financial health of Social Security every single year.

And those trustees include some of the most senior people in the federal government, including the Secretary of the Treasury, Secretary of Labor, Secretary of Health and Human Services, etc.

In the 2019 report they forecast that Social Security’s primary trust fund will be fully depleted by 2034— just 14 years from now.

And in that same report, the Trustees show that Social Security would need a $50 TRILLION bailout in order to have sufficient funding for its long-term obligations.

That amount is over TWICE the national debt, and nearly THREE times the size of the entire US economy.

That’s an impossible bailout… which means Social Security is no longer a tax or political issue; it’s a simple arithmetic problem, and one that cannot be solved.

These same conditions broadly exist across most of the developed world, especially in Europe and Japan where interest rates are actually NEGATIVE and national pension funds are woefully short of cash.

Now, I really don’t intend to be gloomy. But it’s important to tell the truth about these important issues:

•It is mathematically impossible for Social Security (and other national pension funds) to honor the promises they’ve been making for the past several decades.

•With record low interest rates, you have to set aside more money than ever before in order to secure your retirement.

•But simultaneously, with university tuition rising so much faster than household income, parents have to set aside more money than ever before to pay for their children’s education.

•And the government has few options to do anything about it.

The old rules simply do not apply any longer. You can’t keep money parked in a savings account for 20 years and expect to have a comfortable retirement or a college fund for your kids… let alone BOTH.

Conventional options no longer produce the same results that they used to.

But the good news is that there is an entire universe of options out there that can still generate superior returns without having to take on substantial risk– as long as you are willing to look outside of the mainstream.

For example, you can set up a SEP IRA or Solo 401(k) that can help you put away an extra tens of thousands of dollars every year for retirement – tax free.

And instead of investing into conventional investments that simply don’t work anymore, these structures allows you more flexibility to invest your retirement savings in alternatives like cash-producing real estate, secured loans, royalties, and even venture capital and crypto.

Point is, there are plenty of options. You just have to be willing to open your mind to look beyond the mainstream.

And to continue learning how to safely grow your wealth, I encourage you to download our free Perfect Plan B Guide.

SOURCE: SOVEREIGN MAN
 
California's Public Employees Retirement System Just Lost A Stunning $69 Billion In One Month

Link: https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-...ment-system-just-lost-stunning-69-billion-one

by Tyler Durden
Tue, 03/24/2020 - 18:25

In what is likely to become a trend around the country, California's Public Employees Retirement System just watched $69 billion go up in smoke as the coronavirus panic has gripped global markets.

CALPERS total fund balance is now about $335 billion, down from a record high of $404 billion only one month ago. CALPERS administers pensions for about 1,500 local governments around the state, as well as California state employees, according to the Sacramento Bee.

The California State Teachers’ Retirement System doesn't publicly report its value as often, but likely suffered similar losses. As of the end of February, its balance was about $243 billion. If it were to have fallen by the same amount as CALPERS, it would likely be somewhere near $200 billion now.

The losses stand to have a profound impact on California, as cities, counties and schools will have to pay CALPERS more in upcoming years to make up for the losses. This will, in turn, put pressure on state and local government to raise their already astronomical taxes even higher.

Many public workers hired since 2013 may have to contribute a larger slice of their paychecks to their retirement plans. In July, more of the extent of the damage to CALPERS will become clear. Higher payments won't go into effect until Summer 2021, when they will be implemented over the course of 5 years.

Any return rate of less than 7.25% will trigger higher payments for local governments and school districts. CALPERS earned 6.7% last year. The S&P is now down about 31% this year.

California, like many pensions across the U.S., is now going to pay the price for going "all in" on the market while it was at all time highs. Dane Hutchings, a lobbyist with Renne Public Policy Group said: “A one-year downturn in the market is going to have significant effects for a decade. They’re still reeling from the Great Recession.”

CEO Marcie Frost said Friday that the fund was better situated to handle a downturn than it was 10 years ago: “It’s not that we didn’t expect it, although it does seem a little unprecedented in the market. We were planning for a market downturn or correction in the market for the last couple years.”

And hey, don't worry - like everyone else, they've been indoctrinated to believe that all things in the market will work themselves out over time if you just buy and hold long enough.

Frost concluded: “The strength of CalPERS is that we’re a long term horizon investor. And hopefully that will serve us well … we’ll take conservative and appropriate options if we find opportunities in the market. Staying with our long-term investment plan is really the most important part of the equation right now.”
 
Debt Matters:The long term cost of all the debt (US $5T–>$25T since ’00) is HUGE, it’s not costless. Interest rates are already at 5,000 yr lows and will need to stay there for decades. That means the primary safe way to retire – live off interest income of savings, is GONE

May 13, 2020 by IWB

Link: https://www.investmentwatchblog.com...ll-need-to-stay-there-for-decades-that-means/

The reason interest rates are at 5,000 yr lows is due to the existing massive debt load on the world, which is 320% to GDP (IIF). Central banks use QE to force rates down to counter debt. That spawns Asset Bubbles. Asset bubbles benefit the Top 20%. We need structural reforms. pic.twitter.com/c0CWv6Tv2v

— M/I_Investments (@MI_Investments) May 13, 2020

An important editorial by the FT. Rising debt levels can be extremely pro-cyclical and distort incentives for a wide range of economic agents in ways that automatically drive up long-term financial distress costs for the overall…
t.co/kLiUpTLey3 via @financialtimes

— Michael Pettis (@michaelxpettis) May 13, 2020
 
The Great Retirement Threat – Pension expert warns of massive failures ahead

November 20, 2020 by IWB

Link: https://www.investmentwatchblog.com...nsion-expert-warns-of-massive-failures-ahead/

by Adam Taggart

“We are on the precipice of the greatest retirement crisis in the history of the world. And that makes perfect sense because, first of all, we have the largest elderly population in the history of the world.

Just focusing on the United States: our elderly are woefully unprepared to retire. And in the decades to come we will witness millions of elderly Americans, Baby Boomers and others, slipping into poverty. ‘Too frail to work, too poor to retire’ will become the new normal for many elderly Americans.”

So warns forensic pension analyst Ted Siedle.

And Ted knows what he’s talking about.

He’s a former SEC attorney who has testified on pension abuse before the Senate Banking Committee. And in 2017, he secured the largest SEC whistleblower award in history of $48 million, and in 2018, the largest CFTC award in history at $30 million.

Too many of America’s public pensions are dangerously underfunded due to over-promised payouts vs contributions and poor fund performance. And corporate pension funds are in the hole a collective -$50 billion.

ZIRP has pushed these funds out of conservative investments into highly risky and opaque instruments they have no business being in. And that the rosy case, assuming markets continue their current trajectory.

But given how overvalued they are, even just a period of 0% returns (which respectable analysts like John Hussman are waring will be the return over the next 12 years), let alone a sizable market correction, will unleash a catastrophic cascade of collapses across the pension system.

READ SoftBank CEO Warns Of "Lehman-Like-Crisis" That Could Crash Global Economy And Society

Which is very worrisome to consider when markets are this overvalued:

US equities Price To Sales chart

Ted strongly advises every investor look at their current exposure to these coming pension failures.

If you’re relying on one for your retirement, what will you do if your monthly payment is cut in half or worse? And even if you aren’t, these failures will send shockwaves across every asset class as these funds reduce their buying and perhaps become forced sellers. How vulnerable is your current portfolio to that?

Which is why now, more than ever, is the time to partner with a financial advisor who understands the risks in play, can craft an appropriate portfolio strategy for you given your needs, and apply sound risk management protection where appropriate:

Anyone interested in scheduling a free consultation and portfolio review with Mike Preston and John Llodra and their team at New Harbor Financial can do so by clicking here.

And if you’re one of the many readers brand new to Peak Prosperity over the past few months, we strongly urge you get your financial situation in order in parallel with your ongoing physical coronavirus preparations.

We recommend you do so in partnership with a professional financial advisor who understands the macro risks to the market that we discuss on this website. If you’ve already got one, great.

But if not, consider talking to the team at New Harbor. We’ve set up this ‘free consultation’ relationship with them to help folks exactly like you.
 
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